Issue #154: The South Carolina Democratic Primary & the Importance of Black Voters

The 1st "Official" Primary was a Biden landslide

On Saturday, February 3rd, South Carolina held its Democratic Presidential Primary. The contest, the first formally sanctioned primary by the DNC for 2024, saw Joe Biden win a monumental landslide, taking 96% of the vote.

The South Carolina contest was expected to be a Biden landslide. Congressman Dean Phillips spent little time in the state, and the Marianne Williamson campaign has never gotten off the ground. The heavily black primary electorate is also a core part of Biden’s base.

I will talk more about this win further down in this newsletter. First things first, I wanted to talk about why this was the first OFFICIAL Democratic Primary and how it reflects the important of black voters in the Democratic party.

The Fight over the Primary Calendar

After 2020, the Democratic Party resolved to update their primary calendar. I discussed this issue back in my New Hampshire Primary article from a couple weeks back. The main issue for party leaders and activists was that the first two contests, Iowa and New Hampshire, did not reflect the Democratic demographic base well. Both states are heavily white, and hence were way off in predicting the 2016 or 2020 nominees. Both Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden had complex coalitions; including black voters, suburbanites, and older retirees, along with other assorted crosstabs. The IA an NH contests are less diverse, on many metrics, than states to follow; hence a shake up was desired.

In 2023, the Democratic National Committee announced a new authorized primary schedule

• February 3rd - South Carolina

• February 6th - New Hampshire and Nevada

• February 13th - Georgia

• February 27th - Michigan

South Carolina being placed first was a nod to the importance of black voters in the demographic coalition. Past primaries in the state were often over 60% black. Even 2020, which thanks to there being no GOP contest saw many white voters cast ballots, was essentially tied between white and black voters.

The state has no formal party registration, but white voters have been moving more consistently to GOP primaries across much of the south, leaving Democratic primaries increasingly black. The 2020 primary was an exception due to the lack of a GOP contest.

New Hampshire, notorious for its first in the nation insistence, refused to adhere to the schedule. They went ahead with their January contest, though Biden was not on the ballot. However, he did win thanks to a write-in campaign. I covered all that here.

The New Hampshire contest was not for any delegates, with South Carolina remaining the first in the nation, officially at least. New Hampshire did succeed in getting lots of attention; though the GOP side was the bigger focus.

Lets look more at why South Carolina was chosen for 1st, and then we will look at the Biden win.

South Carolina the Kingmaker

In recent cycles, the South Carolina Primary has been a major predictor for the Democratic nomination. From 2008 through 2020, South Carolina was 4th in the calendar, following IA, NH, and Nevada. It was the first contest where black voters could flex their muscle, and they flexed it each time.

In 2008, South Carolina became a major pivot moment in the Democratic nomination fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. The Obama campaign had shocked Clinton when it secured a solid win in Iowa, but then faltered against Clinton in New Hampshire. Historically, the Clintons had strong support in the black community, but Obama’s campaign began to consolidate that voting block. The race to South Carolina got especially heated and nasty, with the Clinton campaign struggling to stop the momentum of Obama. All efforts failed, with Obama easily taking the state.

Obama was of course strongest with black voters, but held his own with suburban whites. However, he was very weak with the more rural whites, coming in 3rd behind Clinton and Edwards, according to exit polls. Here is how Obama did by county linked with the racial makeup of the vote.

Edwards, who had begun to rise as Clinton v Obama attacks tired voters out, was ultimately doomed by only having single-digit support with black voters. This contest would set the state for Obama sweeping Southern Primaries thanks to strong black support. He would eventually secure the nomination.

After the 2008 primaries, which saw the Clinton campaign lose alot of good will with black voters as the contests became especially heated, it was wondered how a future Hillary Clinton coalition for the Presidency would look. Well, with Obama’s implicit backing and with time heeling older wounds, the Clinton campaign of 2016 became the solid candidate of choice for black voters. Voter interviews sited the Clintons working to aid Obama in his 2008 and 2012 elections, with many blowing off the 2008 contest as heated but in the past.

Clinton’s renewed support with black voters would be critical for her primary campaign. After barely winning Iowa and Nevada against Bernie Sanders, and losing badly in New Hampshire, the Clinton side looked to South Carolina for a big win. They got it with Clinton’s near 50 point lead.

The Clinton landslide in South Carolina was fueled by black voters, with her worst counties being those heavily white.

Exit polls gave Clinton a 54-46 lead with whites, but a 86-14 lead with black voters. This was a critical moment for Clinton, and as I saw it, guaranteed she’d be the eventual nominee. Her support among black voters, like Obama 8 years earlier, fueled a wave of wins across the south. She’d secure black voter support across the North as well, critical for winning close primary states like Massachusetts and Illinois. She would also eventually secure the nomination.

Finally in 2020, the Biden campaign’s resurgence in South Carolina is well-documented. The 4th place result in Iowa and 5th place in New Hampshire put Biden on the ropes. The distant 2nd place finish in Nevada gave it little to brag about as well. However, even in those contests, the handful of black precincts in Iowa and Nevada did show Biden was the candidate of choice there. Finally, with South Carolina voting, the support for Biden among black voters was felt, with him taking the state by 30 points.

Biden took all counties, however much of that was due to split opposition. However, he was strongest and well over 50% in the most heavily black counties.

Exit polls showed white voters split; giving Biden 33% to Sanders’ 23% to Buttigieg’s 16%. Black voters, meanwhile, gave Biden 61%, with Sanders back at 17%. The primary win here fueled a Biden surge in support just in time for Super Tuesday. Like past South Carolina winners, he would secure the nomination.

Biden’s 2024 Landslide

In the past, South Carolina Democrats would not hold a primary for an incumbent Democratic President. Obama faced no 2012 primary. However, with South Carolina taking the 1st in the nation spot, a primary was decided on; even though it was expected to be a landslide.

Campaigning for the contest was light. Biden swung by the state in the closing days, keynoting the Democratic Party’s “First in the Nation” dinner. There is said

“I wouldn’t be here without the Democratic voters of South Carolina.”

The Dean Phillips campaign, which banked a lot on New Hampshire and came up far short with 19%, spent no real time in the state. Phillips even said on the day of the vote that he expected Biden to get 95% of the vote. This seemed like expectation raising to most observers, but turned out to be accurate (though I do think he was trying to raise expectations).

The landslide came to pass, as Biden got over 94% of the vote across EVERY county in the state. What was actually more notable was Williamson, who’s campaign sheds campaigns staff and has little support, bested Phillips for 2nd place.

The Biden win was far greater than most of his backers expected. I personally was predicting more of a mid 80s showing.

A more interesting map is to look at how Biden did in each county relative to his statewide margin. Here we see Biden underperform in the rural and whiter NW counties; the area he did struggle most in 2020.

We do not have the final vote by race data yet, though early indicators were the electorate was notably less white than 2020. Regardless, the counties with larger black voting populations are the same ones that showed Biden outperforming the top of the ticket. Suburban locations like Charleston and Columbia also highlighted this. It was especially rural whites that saw Biden underperform.

Turnout in the contest was quiet low; not especially shocking considering it wasn’t really a contested race. The 2024 vote was 24% of the electorate from 2020; with just over 130,000 ballots cast. Even here we see notably geographic and likely demographic divides.

As stated before, South Carolina is an open primary state and has its GOP primary in a few weeks; further shrinking who would plan to vote in a Democratic Primary that was hardly contested and a guaranteed Biden win. But who did show up for the Democratic side? Black voters. The counties with larger black shares of past primaries had notably higher shares of the 2020 vote.

When dealing with contests like this, which feature little campaigning and are low-turnout affairs; it is important to not predict too much from it. However, the broad trends all point too Biden retaining strong support in the black community.

Final Thoughts

It is my opinion that moving South Carolina to the front of the calendar was the right decision for the Democratic Party. There is no one who can deny the importance of black voters in the party coalition, and South Carolina is a perfect state to reflect these voters. I don’t know what will happen long-term with New Hampshire and the battles over the calendar, but as I see it, South Carolina should retain its place to give the spotlight to the very core of the Democratic Party’s base.