Issue #135: "I'm Not a Witch" - The Story of the 2010 Delaware Senate Race

How a primary win instantly changes the dynamics

In American politics, the idea that a political party can “blow” its chances to win an election with a bad nominee is not new. If a political party senses a specific candidate will make winning the general election hard or impossible, they can/will interfere to tip the scale. However, in a modern era of campaigns, where outside forces can work against party interest, the risk of bad nominees emerging from primaries has grown.

Modern campaigns have seen many instances of outside organization, either from the right or left, working against the candidate preferred by the party “establishment.” In a region “safe” for one party, this matters little for the general election. However, we have since seen many nominees prove who’s nomination ended their party’s hopes to win a general.

And with Halloween on the horizon, I can think of no better election to focus on than the 2010 Delaware Senate Race.

Delaware Politics Backstory

For much of the last 2 decades, Delaware has been a reliably democratic state. While until just recently its had some statewide GOP officials, its politics have become increasingly led by the Wilmington metro that dominates the North half of the state. Much of southern Delaware, especially away from the coastline, is rural and conservative, sharing the border with Maryland. Its North, however, is part of a broader metro region covering the Philadelphia suburbs. Delaware is just 3 counties and each make up a good political reference point for the state

• New Castle - The Northern county, includes Wilmington Metro. Reliably Democratic. Growing more diverse, just over 50% white, with 25% black population.

• Kent - Middle County, home to capital of Dover. Modestly right-of-center county, where turnout among its 25% black population can really make the difference in countering the more rural population further inland.

• Sussex - Southern County, more rural and steadily conservative. Rarely votes Democratic.

Before the Clinton era, the state was a Presidential bellwether. However, as the 1990s wore on it shed its swing-state vestige. In 2000, when Al Gore won the state by 14 points, the GOP Senator, William Roth lost his re-election. Roth was challenged by Governor Tom Carper, who bested the Senator by 12 points. With that, both Senate seats were in Democratic hands for the first time since the New Deal Era.

In 2008, Barack Obama picked Delaware Senator Joe Biden as his running mate. That year, the ticket won the state of Delaware by 25 points.

The Obama/Biden ticket dominated in the North end of the state, only suffering moderate losses in the rural south.

The Presidential ballot was not the only contest that Joe Biden contested that day, however. While the Presidential ticket carried the state, Biden also secured re-election as the state’s Senator. Delaware law allowed Biden to appear as the VP while also keeping his re-election campaign operating. Biden would defeat conservative activist Christine O’Donnell by just under 30 points.

While the Senate bid can be viewed as a back-up plan for Biden, should the Obama ticket lose, it was clear by the fall that an Obama win was likely. In the campaign, O’Donnell tried to make Biden’s duel-campaign an issue. However, voters did not seem to care, with Biden largely focused on the campaign stump in other states. That race was O’Donnell’s second campaign, with her losing a GOP primary for Senate in 2006. O’Donnell had made a name for herself in the late 1990s and early 2000s as a conservative pundit and activists. Her positions and media appearances would become a much bigger talking point in her NEXT campaign. We will cover that shortly.

Biden outperformed the Obama ticket in all but a few house seats, namely those with large black populations.

With the Obama win, Biden would resign his seat shortly after being sworn-in, allowing Democratic Governor Ruth Ann Minner to appoint a temporary replacement. Any pick would run in a special election in 2010.

The same day Obama and Biden crushed opposition in the state, one Republican did have a very good night. Congressman Mike Castle, a moderate Republican House member since 1992, easily won re-election with 61% of the vote.

Castle has a long career in Delaware politics. In the 1970s, he was elected to the state legislature. In 1984, he was elected Governor, securing re-election in 1988 with over 70% of the vote. Termed out in 1992, he ran for the state’s at-large Congressional seat. As he made that move, then then at-large Congressman, Democrat Tom Carper, ran for and won Governor. Despite being part of differing parties, both men strategically made the move - infamously dubbed “the swap.”

Castle never faced a real threat while Congressman. His moderate to liberal voting record kept any Democratic effort to oust him at bay. Even the 2006 and 2008 blue waves failed to yield major threats.

So when Castle indicated that he was thinking of running for US Senate in the 2010 special, Democrats got very worried. Team blue would luck out, however, when the GOP shot itself in the foot.

The Tea Party Revolt

In January of 2009, Democratic Governor Ruth Ann Minner appointed Ted Kaufman to fill the next two years of Joe Biden’s senate term. Kaufman had been involved with Biden since the 1970s; serving as the Senator’s Chief of Staff and working as an advisor. He pledged to not run in 2010, and served as a carrier of Biden’s long Senate legacy. His pick would also clear the road for Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden to run for the seat if he chose to. Beau was at the time serving in Iraq as part of his national guard service, and swore off any appointment, but left the door open for a campaign.

In the spring of 2009, Castle made it known he was considering a Senate bid, or retiring all together; with a re-election to the House is least likely pick. In October of 2009, he announced his bid for the Senate seat, something that instantly made the race a tough one for Democrats. Many prominent Democratic politicians started to pass the on the race, including Beau Biden himself; who opted to run for re-election as AG. The lone Democrat to actually file for the race was New Castle County Executive Chris Coons.

Coons was viewed a decided underdog against Castle for much of early 2010. Polls showed Castle with over 50%, or in the high 40s, while Coons was little-known. GOP hopes were further buoyed when Republican Scott Brown won the special election for the Massachusetts Senate Seat long held by Ted Kennedy. The chances for a repeat in Delaware seemed plausible with Castle.

What establishment Republicans did not count on, however, was the emerging Tea Party movement becoming such a massive force in primaries. The right-wing backlash to Obama’s presidency did not just become a problem for Democrats, but for the GOP establishment as well. The birther movement, a racist conspiracy theory that Obama was actually born in Kenya, erupted in 2009. Castle himself was forced to recon with it when a town hall he hosted got ransacked by birthers.

Castle affirmed Obama’s birth as being Hawaii, something that led to boos from the audience. That was not the only issue Castle was forced to wrestle with, however. His long moderate voting record made him an easy target for right-wing forces. Several issues conservatives took with Castle were

• His vote for Cap and Trade

• His support for gun control, including renewing the assault weapons ban

• His vote against banning same-sex marriage

• His pro-choice stances

• His support for the Wall Street Bailout

• Generally regarded as the most, if not one of the most, liberal Republicans in Congress

All the while, O’Donnell had made it clear right after her 2008 loss that she planned to run again. She indeed jumped into the race, but at first was blown off as destined to lose the primary to the well-known Castle.

As the summer wore on, there was a growing unease about the tea party surge, which had seen several moderates lose primaries as the cycle went on. In August, a major upset occurred when moderate Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska lost her primary to Joe Miller. The results were entirely unexpected and sent warning flairs through establishment GOP circles. With the win, the Tea Party Express, Susanne B Anthony List, NRA Victory Fund, and other right-wing organizations pushed resources in to aiding O’Donnell in the primary. They directly called out Castle, claiming he was a RINO and that true conservatives needed a voice in the general election.

"We cannot elect any more liberals to Washington, D.C., especially ones who wear the banner of being a Republican. It is an honor to be a Republican" (O’Donnell)

The national Republican Senate committee and Delaware GOP quickly made efforts to discredit O’Donnell. They pointed to several issues with her candidacy

• The fact she’d lost before and demonstrated no ability to win

• Her lies about claiming she’d won counties against Biden in 2008 (she’d lost them all - even Sussex)

• Her personal finances being a mess, including her former campaigns paying rent and utility bills for her place. The argument being she was running in order to live off campaigns

• Possible illegal coordination with right-wing Super PACs

• Lies about her education and work history

O’Donnell’s right-wing views made her unelectable in a moderate state. In the 1990s she had been a major advocate for putting creationism in schools, called homosexuality a mental disorder, and pushed a firm pro-life position even in cases of rape and incest. Republican leaders in Delaware knew she was a no-go for many in the state.

Republican Party of Delaware Chairman Tom Ross abandoned any notion of impartiality in the race.

“Is Christine O'Donnell actually this unhinged from reality? Or is she simply a liar, whose total lack of respect for Delaware voters leads her to deliberately and repeatedly deny the clear facts surrounding her many personal and professional failures?” “She's not a viable candidate for any office in the state of Delaware. She could not be elected dog catcher”

The attacks on O’Donnell led to even more rallying around her from the right, who saw themselves in a battle for the soul of the party against the dreaded “establishment.” O’Donnell picked up backing from Sarah Palin, who still mattered backed then, and South Carolina Senator Jim DeMint. who was Ted Cruz before Ted Cruz burst on the national scene.

The moderates were not the only side hitting personal shots on O’Donnell. Consultants tied to O’Donnell began to intimate that Castle was gay. While she would disavow the attacks, she clearly was behind them. When going on conservative Mark Levin’s radio show, in attacking Castle for not debating her, she said Castle was engaging in unmanly tactics and said “this is not a bake-off, put your man-pants on.”

In the final days of the election, the lone primary poll was released, and it showed O’Donnell with a 3 point lead. Some notable stats from this poll

• Castle had a 43% approval, with 47% disapproval.

• O’Donnell was 45% approval, 41% disapproval

• 55% of voters viewed Castle as too liberal

Heading into the September primary, the chances of Castle losing were very real. Indeed when the results came in, Castle lost the primary by 7 points. It was his only election loss in a decades-long career.

The results were another major victory for the Tea Party movement, who celebrated with glee in the win. The results had come not just by O’Donnell dominated the state’s rural population, only losing suburbia, the other factor was turnout. The rural Tea Party base showed up in much stronger numbers. Conservative Sussex County had the strongest turnout, 10 points higher than New Castle.

With the results, however, the Democratic chances for holding the seat shot through the roof. Karl Rove, the infamous GOP strategist behind George W Bush, said soon after O’Donnell’s victory - "This is not a race we're going to be able to win."

“I’m Not a Witch”

With O’Donnell as the GOP nominee, the race went from Likely GOP to Likely DEM overnight. Polls that showed Coons losing badly to Castle in early September also showed Coons leading O’Donnell by 11 points. Her conservative positions and support, which had fueled the primary win, were already turning off general election voters. Polls immediately after the primary affirmed this, and Coons would lead polls from that moment on.

The graph below shows Coons polling vs Castle, then flipping to O’Donnell right after the primary.

Republicans did not unite around O’Donnell. Castle refused to endorse her, and polls showed a large chunk of his voters unwilling to back her either. The NRSC announced they did not intend to spend money on the race, and while GOP leaders did offer up personal checks, they did little else to aid her. The race honestly would have become a quiet affair, with Coons likely to cruise to victory, until an old clip from Bill Maher surfaced.

Back in the 1990s and early 2000s, O’Donnell had actually been a guest many times on Maher’s Politically Incorrect show on ABC. In September of 2010, Maher, now on HBO, started airing clips of O’Donnell’s old statements. Maher warned O’Donnell to agree to come on his show, or else he would keep showing embarrassing clips.

The highlight some of the statements in this clip

"I dabbled into witchcraft – I never joined a coven. ... I hung around people who were doing these things. One of my first dates with a witch was on a Satanic alter."

This is of course a silly and batshit thing to talk about. Of course its also the least problematic of the old clips. Another clip shows her talking about why you should NEVER EVER LIE EVER. When she was then prompted about if lying to protect Anne Frank would be ok, she said no

So she is insane, or just bad, but the one item the press REALLY ran with was the whole witch thing.

The witch controversy really threw the O’Donnell campaign for a loop, and they did not know how to respond to it. O’Donnell cancelled several planned media appearances when the controversy first arose. Eventually, the campaign opted to release an ad that started with Christine saying “I’m not a witch”

And with that line, the comedy gods wept at their greatest gift.

Political cartoonist relished in their non-stop material. You can see several here.

Plenty of ads also made sure to not lose sight of O’Donnell’s other controversies and general far-right issue positions.

Saturday Night Live also rejoiced in its new punching bag.

“If elected to the human senate, I promise to fly right down to Washington…. on a plane!”

The witch story made O’Donnell the butt of countless jokes, and she even admitted to regretting the ad.

The controversy proved to be a great Halloween-themed distraction from an otherwise grueling midterm election. The controversy and mockery never changed the fact O’Donnell was doomed to lose the election. It did, however, make her the subject of countless jokes for several weeks.

The General Results

In a shock to literally nobody, O’Donnell lost to Chris Coons in a landslide on election night. Coons secured over 56% of the vote, dominating the North half of the state; taking New Castle with 66% of the vote, well more than enough to offset losing Sussex and Kent.

The results did mark an improvement for O’Donnell from 2008. Even with all the scrutiny, she had far more money this time, and it was a broadly more GOP-leaning year. That said, her loss was a bitter disappointment for Republicans who’d hoped Castle could deliver the seat for them. That same night, GOP candidates in Nevada and Colorado lost otherwise-winnable races because the nominees were too right-wing.

Castle’s loss didn’t only hurt GOP prospects in the Senate, he’d given up his house seat to make the run. Without Castle, the Democrats finally flipped the at-large Congressional seat. John Carney, who’d narrowly lost the 2008 Primary for Governor, won the election with 57%. Carney now serves as Governor, and will be termed out in 2024. He is still weighing if he will make a play for another office.

That night, Republicans did have one win in Delaware. The longtime Incumbent Auditor, Robert Thomas Wagner, narrowly survived a tough challenge.

Wagner’s win comes not just from strong down-ballot support but notably flipping the suburbs outside of Wilmington.

Today, O’Donnell is largely a forgotten figure. She wrote a book after her loss, titled “Troublemaker.” She was a fringe political talking head until 2016, when she criticized Donald Trump. Honestly you cannot find alot on her activities since.

But we will always remember her for the fact that she is NOT a witch.