Issue #131: The Fall of Allen Boyd and North Florida Democrats (Part 2)
The Red Wave of 2010
Yesterday, I released the first of a 2-part series looking at the campaigns of former North Florida Democratic Congressman Allen Boyd. You can read that first part here, where I go over the political dynamics in North Florida through the 1990s and Boyd’s successful elections through the early 2000s.
Now I aim to finish up this story. First with a landslide win, then a crushing loss.
The 2008 Landslide
As mentioned in Part 1, Boyd did not face a GOP opponent in 2006. He did face an opponent in 2008, but it was hardly a threat. Republicans did not put up a serious challenger, with first time candidate Mark Mulligan filing for the seat and winning the Republican primary.
Mulligan, who only managed to raise $30,000, ran as an early Tea Party Republican. He tried to use the Wall Street bailout, which Boyd had backed, to galvanize a populist revolt. This did not work, however, and Boyd went through the fall of 2008 with no major concerns about his re-election prospects.
On election day, Boyd secured 62% of the vote, winning every county east of Bay.
Like past campaigns, the only major site of opposition came from Bay, Walton, and Okaloosa County. The GOP efforts from 2002 to add Walton and Okaloosa to harm Boyd’s election prospects was not enough when the Congressman maintained strong support with the ancestral Democratic big pend.
The same day Boyd won his race, Barack Obama lost the district by 10 points - despite carrying the state.
The Obama results showed a deep rural skepticism of the President. Both racism and shifting rural coalitions played into this. Kerry had done 1 point better in the district, but he was also losing the state that same day. Obama improved on Kerry across the state, expect namely in rural Florida.
Boyd outperformed Obama across the district, with the student and black communities of Tallahassee being the lone exception.
Boyd’s re-election came with Democrats winning commanding majorities in the House and Senate. With that, he and his blue dog colleagues would be put in a position to either affirm major Democratic legislation, or defect on votes and anger the progressives.
That balancing act would prove tricky.
111th Congress and Lawson Primary
Early 2009 showed Boyd would have challenges over the next two years. For one, the democratic trifecta, a first for Boyd’s time as a Congressman, would almost surely lead to the pass of more left-wing legislation that would put Boyd on the defense. In addition, Boyd found out that State Senator Al Lawson, a black Democrat, was going to challenge him in the primary in 2010.
There is a long backstory on the Boyd and Lawson dynamics, and little of it was positive. The two initially clashed back in 1996, while both were State House members. The conflict emerged when Florida’s 1992 Congressional map was struck down, and both had eyes on how North Florida would be structured. The Supreme Court had struck down the 3rd district, a black-access but snake-like seat. Read here for more backstory on how this map came into place.
The redraw was for North Florida, with a mandate to have a black-access seat, but not one so oddly shaped.
Boyd, who chaired the rules committee in the house, wanted a 2nd district that was bulky and rural, surrounding Tallahassee like the current seat. So he favored a map that would keep the black-access seat in Jacksonville and heading South. Al Lawson, meanwhile, pushed for an east-west Tallahassee-to-Jacksonville, which had been considered a few years before. I covered this is more detail in my Al Lawson history piece. The legislature could either do a North-South seat that connected Orlando and Jacksonville, or an east-west seat. In the end, Boyd got his wish and his preferred map came into law, leaving the 2nd as a majority-white bulky seat in the big bend.
Bad blood between the two camps boiled over in 2000, when Lawson faced Boyd’s sister-in-law for an open State Senate seat. In a nasty race, which I delve into with my Lawson history article, Lawson emerged the winner.
By 2009, the big bend was not big enough for both of these men. Lawson not only had strong support in the black community, but had a history of getting rural white support as well.
Boyd’s conservative voting record further made him vulnerable to a primary threat. As I mentioned in part 1, Boyd’s conservative voting record and his role as a leader in the Blue Dog caucus led to plenty of progressive grumbling in Tallahassee. However, Boyd had long avoided a primary due to a broad understanding that in a seat that leaned GOP for President, a progressive Democrat would face trouble.
The 111th Congress, however, saw Boyd cast several votes with the President that helped mute alot of left-wing grumbling. These included
Voting for the final version of the Stimulus Bill of 2009
Voting for the Matthew Shepard Hate Crimes legislation
Voting for Cap and Trade legislation that passed the US House (but died in the Senate)
While he voted against the first version of Obamacare, he did back the final reconciliation package from 2010. This included student loan reform.
More than anything, the healthcare vote was a massive shakeup in 2010. Boyd’s support was a critical YES as the leadership was counting votes until the last minute - with the bill barely passing. Boyd was counseled that voting for the legislation, which was despised by conservatives, could cost him a general election. By accounts of those there, Boyd said it was the right thing to do.
Boyd’s critical votes, but Healthcare by and large, muted several of Boyd’s progressive opponents. Lawson would make the fact he voted against the November bill an issue, but its easy to argue the YES vote in March secured his re-nomination.
The campaign had its share of heated moments; with supporters of the candidates on constant edge. In one instance, Michelle Obama was sent to campaign with Boyd, though she didn’t realize it was an actual campaign event. In another instance, Lawson took the camera away from a campaign tracker. Boyd called the police, but the incident was brushed off and camera replaced. In another instance, Lawson took a dig at Boyd’s divorce – ok that was petty. These two didn’t like each-other.
In the end, Boyd narrowly edged Lawson in the August primary. Boyd spent over $2 million compared to Lawson’s $250,000. Lawson got so close by utterly dominating with black voters. In addition, he did pick off some conservative rurals.
As I delve into more with my Al Lawson history article, the State Senator did have rural white support, often considered the one black candidate some of these voters would support. Lawson also likely benefitted from some conservative white democrats, angered at Boyd voting with Obama, backed Lawson. For more on protest votes from conservative Democrats, see this post here.
The Red Wave Hits
While Boyd secured re-nomination, he was already in trouble heading into the general election. As the fall went on, Democratic prospects continued to dim. A GOP flip of the House seemed assured, with the Senate being the chamber up in the air. Boyd, along with many southern Democrats, were all considered to be at great risk. Boyd also had his first major challenger in years.
The Republicans easily nominated Steve Southerland, a funeral director in Bay County. Southerland was able to raise $1.2 million in direct cash and had plenty of outside help from conservative committees. Boyd was tied to Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Meanwhile, the Congressman tried to tout his independence. However, as the election became more about taking back the house and less about personalities, Boyd’s fortunes slipped.
On election day, aid the GOP netting 63 seats and flipping the chamber, Boyd lost to Southerland by a punishing 12 points. A large number of his blue dog colleagues where swept out of office at the same time.
Boyd’s map from 2010 looks notably similar to the Obama-McCain map from 2008. While Boyd outperformed the rural a bit (but also suffered from much weaker Tallahassee student turnout compared to 2008), in many ways he became just another “generic national democrat” to many conservative voters.
How Boyd’s support shifted from 2008 to 2010 can be seen below. Boyd managed to hold his ground largely with black voters, as well as improving a bit in some city precincts. However, he lost well over 30 points in support across many of the rural communities he used to dominate in.
In Florida, it was a good night for Republicans, with 4 seats flipping to the GOP. Democrat CFO Alex Sink lost to businessman Rick Scott in a painfully close Gubernatorial election; despite Scott having much worse approvals. Voters by and large aimed to punish Democrats, and conservatives far outpaced liberals in turnout.
Sink notably outperformed in the rural parts of Florida, thanks in part to her ties to North Carolina and Scott being viewed as a callous rich businessman. The precinct swing map shows how much stronger in the panhandle she was compared to Obama.
While Boyd lost the 2nd, Sink narrowly carried it by 1%. This partly reflects her strength but also highlights how much Obama underperformed with the panhandle voters.
Sink’s decent showing in the district was not enough to save Boyd, however, who’s opponent had far less baggage. I firmly believe issues around House control mattered more than anything, as several democrats with even more conservative voting records still lost.
Boyd would go out with a strong series of votes in the lame duck session. While several of his conservative democrats voted no, Boyd would vote YES on repealing “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.”
After Politics
With the loss, Boyd opted to retire from elected politics. In 2012, a re-mapped district, which still leaned red, would see Southerland win re-election against Al Lawson. I cover that race in my Lawson history article. However, Boyd would be avenged in 2014 when Gwen Graham defeated Steve Southerland. I covered that here.
Today, the North Florida region, outside of Tallahassee and the black communities, is decidedly Republican. Today only a few conservative local democratic officials are left, and the Congressional district is a SAFE GOP seat. Of course, as those of you who have been following me for some time know, another mid-decade remap may be on the way in North Florida.