Issue #119: Russia's Coup in Niger

Wagner prints all over it

Over the last 48 hours, a tragic situation in Niger has developed. President Mohamed Bazoum has been depose in a coup led by security personal and now backed by the military. The move comes just a few years after the nation held its first successful democratic transfer of power since independence.

Now that threatens to be undone. We will get into WHY this is happening, and why my title calls out Russia. But lets also take a quick look at the election that brought Bazoum to power.

The 2021 Election in Niger

Niger, like so much of Africa, has been subject to countless coups and military dictatorships. This all stems from the instability created by the European carving up of Africa in the late 1800s. Niger, like much of Western Africa, was part of the French empire until its independence in 1960.

The nation critically sits in the Sahel region of Africa, which is the semi-arid region between the desert and tropics of the central/south, often a no-mans land with little government authority. Long an area of nomadic tribes, the region has become a major hotbed for militant groups like Boko Haram and ISIS in the last decade.

In 2011, the nation moved away from a military junta and in a praised election, Mahamadou Issoufou was elected President, marking a transition to civilian rule. In 2020, Issoufou announced he would abide by term limits, setting the stage for a democratic transfer of power, the first for the region. The county uses a two-round system of voting, with a majority needed to avoid a runoff.

The first round saw Mohamed Bazoum, who was involved in politics for decades at that point and considered a major frontrunner, secure 39% of the vote. His closest opponent with 17% was Mahamane Ousmane, who was actually the first democratically elected President in 1993 - but then was depose in a coup a few years later.

The runoff saw Bazoum win with 56% of the vote. His base of support was strongest in the north end of the nation.

Like many elections in Africa, results broke down by language and demographic lines. While the nation is largely unified as a Muslim nation, it has many different tribal languages. As the map shows.

Bazoum was most popular in the north of the nation, but density of vote is much more concentrated in the southern portions of the state. The votes per SQ mile in the runoff can be seen below.

If we re-look at the runoff results by vote density, there were populated pockets of support for Bazoum. However, his strongest bases were in very rural and nomadic portions of the nation.

The results of the vote were hailed at the time. In his early first term, the President pledge to work to increase literacy rates, especially among girls, and work to curb the nations sky-high birth rate. Bazoum, after being deposed, has called for democracy to prevail. His exact whereabouts as of this writing are unclear.

So what happened here?

France vs Russia

This greatly simplifies matters, and we still are getting more details, but this feels very much like a proxy war over influence in the region. Nations like Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, all neighbors, have struggled with terrorist insurgencies for some time. Western powers, including the US and France, have sent special troops into the Sahel region to aid these nations in dealing with attacks. There are believed to be several thousand troops in the region fighting insurgent forces.

These nations still suffers from the poverty that is a result of the instability and predatory nature of the former European colonizers. France’s role in West Africa is very nasty and leaves many bitter feelings in the mouths of residents there.

For context on just how bad France was, watch this video about their role in killing Burkina Faso leader, Thomas Sankara, in the 1980s - largely because Sankara wanted to transition the nation away from over-reliance on European powers.

Today, the relationship between African nations and western powers is mixed, with some more exploitative than others. Niger today is a major uranium supplier, with France getting around 1/3 of its supply for nuclear reactors from Niger.

That said, new cooperation is good if its not predatory. In the recent years, both President Issoufou and President Bazoum maintained good relationships with western governments.

However, Russia, sensing the discontent around colonial pasts, has been moving into the Western Africa region in recent years. Coups is Mali and Burkina Faso both led to more Russian-friendly dictatorships. French troops were forced to leave Mali after the coup there. Many western forces have been replaced with the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, which also has a presence in Libya.

Niger, therefor, was the major western ally left in the region. However, the coup changes this dramatically - with the coup has seen supporters waving Russian flags. Image from the BBC.

The ousting of Bazoum is being framed by coup supporters as casting off a western-backed leader they claim wasn’t doing enough to stop violence from insurgencies. Pro-coup citizens talked in the streets of the indignity of the French rule of the past and current ties to this day. This comes after years of Niger hitting back at the Kremlin for Wagner-backed propaganda campaigns in the region. Russia has been sowing this seed for some time. That said, it was made easier for Russia to do this due to the cruelty of colonization of the past and the modern racism of the European nations toward Africa.

I’m gonna get an angry reply for that - but its true. There is extreme racism and anti-Muslim sentiment in many European nations, especially France. The recent protests/riots over there further revealed tensions under the surface and a notable explosion in open racism online from French accounts about who’s fault everything was. This continued “we are so much more civilized” notion from European nations feeds into resentment and gives openings to Russia and China.

At this time, I would like to remind everyone that while Niger had a free election in 2021 after the incumbent President honored term limits, Russia held a sham-referendum to extend Putin’s term in office. To be clear, Russia is NOT any sort of savior here.

Russia and its backers will frame this as a “cast-off” of the old imperial powers. However, as we know, Russia is also an imperial power. All they did was overthrow a leader that a majority of voters backed in an election. There is no clear indicator this leader was especially corrupt, incompetent, or cruel. There is NO WAY the replacement power will not be more repressive. They have already suspended party activities and the ruling party headquarters were lit on fire yesterday.

The big talking point is that Wagner and the new government will do better dealing with the insurgencies. The data from Mali and Burkina Faso shows that is not true, as dictatorships also expend resources keeping themselves in power. In fact, the political links between these coups is all the more clear when you see this video from just 5 months ago about how both nations were considering a union.

Russia has very likely facilitated this coup. Whether this is part of an effort by the Wagner group to mend fences with Putin after the Prigozhin revolt, we don’t know. The coup comes at the SAME TIME that Russia was holding a summit of African leaders - one that had far fewer members attend than the last time in 2019. This low attendance led to the Kremlin to be very upset. But oh my how convenient timing!

Either way, this is not a positive step for Niger and likely will lead to violence, death, and likely another end to Democracy - again.

It sucks.

Personal News!

Ok, that was somber and not exactly a feel good story, so there is no easy way to make this transition.

But a reminder, I have started a Patreon! It is a cheap $5 a month to get exclusive and early content.

I have two items already up

• A look at the 1924 Democratic Convention and the chaos of the vote to condemn the Ku Klux Klan

• A look at the first successful election of a black candidate in Liberty County, FL - a region known for voter intimidation and Klan violence

I have several other projects in the works. These will vary from detailed deep dives to simple maps. The goal is largely to stick with history, especially older elections, and unique and forgotten down-ballot posts.

A few projects include

• Looking at Orthodox Jewish Voting strength in a local NYC race

• Breakdowns of long-forgotten Florida Governor elections from decades past

• Precinct-level elections from Miami-Dade in the 1940s through 1960s!

Yes that is right, I have been creating precinct maps of Miami-Dade, thanks to Miami-Herald archives that have given me the borders of the precincts. So I have been slowly turning those black-and-white descriptions of “go to this road, then left on this road, then follow the creek, then go along the section” to create a visual map. For example, this was the results in Dade County in the infamous 1950 Florida Senate Primary - which saw Progressive Claude Pepper ousted by conservative George Smathers.

I am working on precinct maps for 1948, 1952, 1956, 1960, and 1964 Senate. I’ll likely also look at other democratic primaries as well. I am still gather data.

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For context, this is me whenever I’m trying to understand what is or isn’t taxable, especially with an internet newsletter.

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Ok that is enough shilling for now.

I truly hope things work out in Niger. That said, I am not optimistic. The sins of the colonial past are still felt in the region, and unfortunately, Russia has swept in to establish their own sense of “order.”