Issue #118: Ron DeSantis' Delayed HD35 Special Election

Ron doesn't want Orlando to vote before Iowa

Florida will be holding two special elections for the state house in the coming months. In December, voters in HD118, which is located in Southwest Miami-Dade County, go to the polls. In January, voters in HD35, which is based out of eastern Orlando, will cast ballots.

The different dates may make you think the vacancies occurred months apart and the special election calls came at different times. However, that is not the case. In fact, both special elections were announced last Wednesday. Despite there being no legitimate policy reason to do so, one election is scheduled a month later.

I wonder why that is……

You see, my dear readers, the major fight in these special elections is going to be in HD35. This Biden seat was held by Republican Fred Hawkins and due to its topline history, the chances of a democratic win there are real. Knowing this, DeSantis scheduled that election for post-Iowa, clearly aiming to avoid bad press if his party loses the seat; which would undercut his electability argument.

Due to the late date, HD35 will go 200 days being vacant, more than half a year. This isn’t new for Ron, as he delayed calling special elections for a batch of majority-black legislative districts in 2021.

For this post, I am gonna delve into HD35 and why it will be competitive. First, lets talk about 118 really quick. Lets look at why DeSantis felt it was ok for this seat to vote before Iowa.

HD118 and Dem problems in Dade

The new HD118 covers unincorporated parts of Miami-Dade. In its north is the community of Kendale Lakes, while further south is Three Lakes and South Miami Heights. Like so much of Miami-Dade, it is a district that once looked very promising for Democrats in 2016, but has since swung to the right. After Clinton won the seat by 10 points, Biden lose the district by 17, a massive swing.

The districts is 85% Hispanic, and 53% Cuban outright. Democratic decline with Hispanics in 2020 completely erased as emerging support with the community. Trump’s 58% actually outpaced Rubio’s 2016 Senate re-election. In 2022, the well-documented turnout issues among Democrats allowed DeSantis and Rubio to get over 65% of the vote in the district.

Now as I will be talking about with HD35, the 2022 midterm landslides are heavily driven by turnout issues that I have documented in detail in this newsletter. That said, the Trump 2020 numbers and even the modest 2018 losses show that Democratic rebounding in this area is a multi-cycle effort, not one. When looking ahead to 2024, their are several other seats more in play for the party, namely located further along the coastline.

Right now the entire field of candidates in 118 are Republicans. That primary, which will be on October 3rd, is likely to be the main event. Democrats may recruit someone, but its hard to see money going into such a tough haul when the 35 special will be the next month.

At this point, its easy for me to rank 118 as a SAFE GOP hold.

HD35 and Dem Rebound Efforts

As I stated on twitter, the election for HD35 is the real fight. This seat is based out of the eastern Orlando/Orange County region and goes down into Osceola. It gave Biden a 4.9% margin.

Now while this district looks big, I cannot stress enough how much Orange County dominates the vote. Over 80% of the vote comes from Orange, with the Osceola portions largely empty land. Yeehaw Junction used to be a very popular tourist destination on the way to Disney World where discount tickets and cheaper souvenirs were available (so many memories of billboards as a kid) but is now a largely rural and rusted down. Its major landmark, the Desert Inn, was tragically destroyed when a semi-truck crashed into it a few years ago.

Today, the south Osceola region is sparsely populated and largely ranch land.

A voter density map highlights the dynamic in HD35 well. Below is precinct results showing the candidate margin per square mile.

Right around 50% of the vote comes out of the dense urban block on the west end of the district. That said, the rural vote does eventually add up.

When the state house passed its redistricting lines, the consensus from myself and others was that the districts were actually drawn fairly. Every district in the Orange, Seminole, Osceola block voted for Biden.

HD35 seemed like a very good pickup opportunity. Incumbent Fred Hawkins had underperformed in 2020 in his old seat due to a scandal around impersonating a sheriff’s officer when he was a county commissioner. The old seat backed Trump by 6, but Hawkins only got a 1% plurality win. I delve into that in the link so check that for more. Hawkins on paper was vulnerable, but as I described in my 2022 house ratings, he had far more money than his Democratic opponent.

In the end, Hawkins would easily win by 10% of the vote. That was not a testament to his strength however. That same day, the district gave Rubio and DeSantis big wins.

DeSantis took the district by 12 points while Rubio won it by 7. The weaker Rubio showing is partially due to Demings’ time as a Orlando Congresswoman. That said, the margins in 2022 were far more GOP-friendly than anything in recent years.

The district has been voting left of the state in recent years, especially when you consider that Obama lose it back in 2012. The area has grown more Democratic as the suburbs move blue and Hispanic share of the vote grows. However, what doomed Democrats there in 2022 was historically bad turnout.

In 2022, the Republicans had 13 point higher turnout than the Democrats, something unrivaled in recent years. Thanks to this, the GOP voters made up 40% of the electorate despite in terms of registration, the district was 36% NPA, 33% DEM, and 31% GOP.

Hispanic share of the vote was only 22%, well below the 29% of registration. The table below shows how Hispanic makeup has been growing with time.

Many Hispanics in this area are Puerto Rican and still lean much more Democratic than Hispanics do in Miami-Dade. However, the partisan turnout gap among Hispanics was especially bad. In 2022, 36% of Hispanic Democrats showed up compared to the 50% of Hispanic Republicans. Hispanic NPAs, meanwhile, only has 25% turnout.

Overall, in 2022 the district was much whiter and more GOP friendly than previous cycles.

The good news for Democrats here is that they can fix this. Similar to the win in the Jacksonville Mayoral Election earlier this year, Florida democrats need regional wins to build momentum. Meanwhile, as DeSantis tries to save his floundering Presidential bid, he does not want another Democratic win to distract from his electability argument.

Both parties have primaries in November. I will go over candidates and details down the line.

But the reason for the date is abundantly clear! This seat, to me, is a TOSSUP.

Personal News!

I have one more item to discuss before signing off. I have decided to launch a Patreon to offer up exclusive content. It has one tier, $5 a month, offering up stuff I will not be posting elsewhere and offering first looks at elections or maps that won’t go online otherwise for months. Some posts will be short-form articles while others will be single-election maps and a short discussion about why they mattered. I already have a long list of items to cover, and will seek audience feedback on what folks are interested in.

I already have a first post up! I look at the struggle for black representation in rural Liberty County, a north Florida community with a long history of racial violence and voter suppression. I delve into the history, failed elections, lawsuits, and the culmination with the election of Earl Jennings, the first black commissioner, in 1990 - and his subsequent re-election efforts. Sign up to see an un-blurred map!

You can sign up here!!!

This Patreon aims to help cover research costs - whether its book purchases or subscriptions to archives - as well as other un-intended costs that have come from political advocacy. Every little bit will help just offset some financial worry so that I can keep this main substack open and free. So if you appreciate the work, please consider donating and I promise it will be the best $5 you ever spent.