Issue #107: Jacksonville Runoff Preview: All About Turnout

Can Democrats hold off an election day red wave

Today is the runoff in Jacksonville, and both parties are finishing a mad dash to drag their voters to the polls. While several city races are subject to expensive runoff campaigns, the main event of the evening is the Jacksonville Mayor’s race.

In the March primary, Democrat Donna Deegan and Republican Daniel Davis advanced to the runoff. Both were largely the establishment choices of their respective side.

Both candidates have received the support of their party, but not achieved perfect unity via endorsements from vanquished candidates. Al Ferraro, who ran as a more conservative candidate, has not backed Davis. Audrey Gibson, a former state senator who did best in the city’s black community, has likewise not endorsed Deegan. Deegan has managed, however, to secure endorsements from GOP councilmembers like Randy DeFoor and Matt Carlucci.

How well candidates can unite their party, as well as win over the handful of independent voters, will of course be critical. Millions has been spent by both sides to persuade voters to their side. However, more than anything, turnout for this runoff is likely to decide the winner.

To highlight this, lets book at some critical past races in the city.

Previous Races and Their Turnout

I’ve covered Jacksonville and its complicated politics multiple times. You can read them below.

• A look at the 2015 runoff, where Democratic Mayor Alvin Brown lost re-election

  • Highlights the failure of Brown to unite the party for his re-election

• A look at the 2019 disaster for Duval Democrats

  • The DEMs deciding to not challenge Curry led to a massive turnout collapse

• A look at Kim Daniels, the insane Democrat of Jacksonville, from 2018

  • Important for understanding the religious divide among Jacksonville Democrats

• A look at Donna Deegan, the Democratic candidate for Mayor for 2023

  • More backstory on Jacksonville and Deegan’s strength as a candidate

• A look at the special election for Tommy Hazouri’s council seat, and his legacy

  • Highlights the crossover appeal some democrats can have

• A look at the March Primary for Mayor and city races

Since 2011, Democrats have won only a handful of citywide races in Jacksonville. Their best performances were often tied to strong crossover appeal - like that of Tommy Hazouri - or very strong GOTV operations - like Alvin Brown in 2011.

Here is past turnout for Jacksonville city elections since 2011. The best Democrats did in terms of turnout gap or share of votes cast was the 2011 runoff, which saw Democrat Alvin Brown win. Other races, however, have consistently seen Democrats lag in turnout - often costing them seats.

Keep this table in mind as I go through some key races from the last decade.

The 2011 Mayor’s race is a good place to start for this backstory. This was an example of party unity and party turnout aiding Democrats. That year, Democrats united around Alvin Brown, a former Clinton administration official. Republicans, however, were very divided. The runoff advanced Brown with Mike Hogan, who was not popular with more moderate voters.

Hogan, who ran as a tea party conservative, did not succeed in united the Republican caucus - with many moderate Republicans backing Brown. This was especially true for business-minded Republicans, who did not want culture war issues to hurt city business.

On top of this, the Democrats organized a massive ground game to push Democrats to the polls. The State Party got heavily involved in funding and staffing field operations. This allowed for strong Democratic turnout, allowing a narrow win.

This win was a massive boost to Democratic moral coming off the 2010 disasters. The strong Democratic turnout helped overcome defections from rural white democrats on the west end of the county. Strong black turnout propelled a win.

The 2015 election came as Brown struggled to keep his own party united. Brown had run to the right while in office, avoiding prominent Democrats and siding with the churches against a Human Rights Ordinance. He faced former FL GOP chair Lenny Curry and moderate GOP Commissioner Bill Bishop. In the first round, Bishop won over the liberal riverside communities from Brown.

In the runoff, Bishop would back Brown, but only close to the end of the campaign and fairly tepidly. Meanwhile Curry actually seemed like a better candidate to possible getting LGBT rights passed - as his business community backers did not like the constant debate and controversy. Brown did not work well with the state party and did not unite his party.

While turnout was decent for the runoff, it was clear Brown was likely to lose before the polls closed - as the turnout gap was around 3% by mid-afternoon. This was worse than 2011 and Brown did not have the party as united. Brown would lose.

The Brown loss came the same day Hazouri (D) won the City At-Large 3 race. Hazouri, a gay rights backer, had stronger Democratic unity and a good chunk of moderate Republican backers. My 2015 runoff article and Kim Daniels article delve into this more.

While turnout in 2015 was more GOP friendly than 2011, it wasn’t so dramatic that Brown couldn’t win. The lack of unity didn’t help (Brown’s fault) - but also better turnout could have saved him.

In 2019, Jacksonville Democrats did not field a candidate against Curry. Worried about his strong campaign, Democrats instead backed Republican Anna Brosche - an at-large member who clashed with Curry over many issues. Brosche would only win the city’s black community and the liberal-white Riverside.

The landslide was influenced by the collapse in Democratic turnout that the lack of a Mayoral candidate caused. The Republicans had a 7.5% advantage in party turnout, a record for the city. This not only ensured Curry would win, but it tanked many Democratic candidates for down-ballot office.

I covered the 2019 disaster in my detailed article (see list at top of this section). One perfect example of this is the Tax Collector race, where John Crescimbeni, who was an at-large City Councilmember and strong democratic candidate, got absolutely killed in his race.

Many democrats lost by these margins due to the turnout drop. Only Tommy Hazouri, who had the support of Lenny Curry (and as such who’s GOP opponent was underfunded) survived the 2019 cycle city-wide.

Turnout issues dogged democrats again, however, in 2022. After Tommy Hazouri tragically passed away while in office, a special was held for the seat. Despite Democrats putting up a strong candidate in Tracye Polson, she would lose to Republican Nick Howland.

The culprit? The Republicans having a 6% turnout advantage, allowing the GOP to win despite Polson having some cross-over appeal. This was a seat Democrats desperately wanted to hold, but the electorate was far redder than the registration was.

That special, which was in February of 2022, would be a warning for the disaster that would be the midterms.

Turnout for the Runoff

The overall story over the years is how critical turnout has been. While some candidates struggled to unite their parties, leaving openings for opponents, the vast majority of contests up and down ballot have been influenced and decided by the electorate showing up.

Both Deegan and Davis have some party unity issues, though Deegan has picked up several GOP backers. However, what can sink Deegan is bad turnout. The primary electorate was 4% more GOP than DEM - with election day being the big red wave. As of right now, Democrats lead both early and mail ballots, but as the table below shows, the shares of the vote for early and mail match closely with the first round.

Far more votes have been cast than last time, so who shows up tomorrow could still look different. However, if the GOP has a similar election day surge, then the final electorate is likely too much for Deegan. If Deegan were to win in a GOP +4 environment, it would be a big win thanks to notable GOP disunity. However, a narrower GOP advantage could save Deegan. While Brown won with a sizeable Democratic advantage in votes cast, that was back in an era with more rural white democrats from the west who often defected. The current DEM electorate, while smaller, is more united around the urban core and suburbs.

Right now the Democrats lead by just over 6,000 votes cast. However, among voters with strong local turnout history but who haven’t voted yet - the GOP has anywhere from a 55-60% share (depending on criteria). Republicans correctly predict election day will be big for them. It will be. However, the question is how much the GOP advantage will be when the day ends.

This dynamic is perfectly highlighted by yesterday’s St Pete Poll, which have Deegan with a narrow lead, but with the “not voting yet” contingent expected to be GOP heavy.

You can read the full poll here.

Heading into the final day, both sides have voters to turn out. The GOP needs rural conservatives who backed other candidates to show up and vote for the establishment. Democrats need a good showing in the black community, who’s turnout is at 16% vs the 21% for white voters.

Who shows up tomorrow will decide this race. Deegan seems to have an advantage in an even-turnout environment. But what has been the GOP response to the latest poll or others with Deegan narrowly up? “The GOP turnout advantage will be higher.”

Well, the Duval County Election website has live turnout on its website. Myself and I imagine many others will be watching the updates to see who is showing up throughout the today.